|Alpine Weather Report|
ISSUED: Sunday April 4, 2021 10:30 MDT
NOTE: This is the final issue of this weather forecast for the season.
SYNOPSIS: A Pacific system will push eastward across southern BC for occasional rain/upper elevation snow this morning and then a few snow showers (dropping snow level) and gusty winds during the afternoon and evening. Variable cloud and scattered flurries should linger overnight. A dryer northwesterly flow should develop aloft for fairly sunny to partly cloudy skies Monday and Monday night. In comparison to the past few days the temperatures will be several degrees cooler.
FREEZING LEVEL: Currently near 1800-1900 metres. Dropping to between 1300 & 1600 metres this afternoon and to surface tonight. Rising to between 1700 & 1900 metres Monday afternoon.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Cloudy with occasional snow/rain and then snow showers. Snow level dropping from near 1800 metres to near 1300-1400 metres, accumulation from 5 to 10 cm above. Windy at times. High near 3, trending slightly cooler during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with gusty winds and a few flurries or snow showers during the evening. Cloudy with a diminishing chance of flurries and possible clear breaks developing overnight. Accumulation from 2 to 5 cm. Low near -4.
MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. High 3 or 4.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy period. Low near -5.
TUESDAY: A mix of sun & cloud. High near 5.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing cloud and wind, 60% chance of wet flurries or light rain during the afternoon. High near 3, possibly trending cooler during the afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers Wednesday night, minor to light accumulation.
THURSDAY: Variable cloud, windy at times and a slight chance of flurries during the morning. A mix of sun & cloud during the afternoon. High near 2.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence. The most recent guidance times the main band of precipitation associated with the cold fronts passage between near noon and 6 PM. There’s some uncertainty of when the snow level will drop, it could remain above 1600 metres until the rate of fall increases during the early afternoon. An upper trough and its unstable airmass could result in highly variable/locally heavy snow showers during the late afternoon and evening. Some guidance hints at a secondary band of snow showers pushing southward along the Rockies (largely confined just east of Fernie) overnight, a greater than predicted amount of snow is likely if these cells spread slightly further west tonight. Variable cloud could linger early Monday. The computer models are now in better agreement for a dryer northwesterly flow for fairly sunny skies or at least a mix of sun & cloud during the remainder of Monday. Fernie should generally remain between disturbances Monday night through Tuesday night. A large upper trough should push southeastward from the north coast Wednesday-Wednesday night. The computer models struggle with its timing & moisture content, changes are likely. High pressure could briefly build from the south coast Thursday afternoon.