|Alpine Weather Report|
ISSUED: Tuesday February 19, 2019 10:45 MST
SYNOPSIS: The remnants of a weakening Pacific system approach from the northwest today to maintain mainly cloudy skies as flurries or occasional snow continue off and on through the day and into the night resulting in a light accumulation by Wednesday morning. Temperatures remain well below seasonal normals over the next 24 hours while westerly, northwesterly, or northerly winds potentially come up into the moderate category at times at ridgetop elevations. Winds should come around to northerly or northeasterly on Wednesday between a deepening upper trough over Idaho and a modified Arctic airmass to the north. Limited bands of moisture and instability lingering over the East Kootenay should support a few additional flurries or convective snow showers on Wednesday with a few possible sunny breaks and milder temperatures. Gusty easterly or northeasterly winds may develop under partly clear skies with colder temperatures Wednesday night.
FREEZING LEVEL: Surface.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with morning flurries becoming occasional snow in the afternoon, up to 6cm. High near -9.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with occasional snow in the evening becoming flurries overnight, up to 8cm.
Low near -16.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries and possible afternoon snow showers. Minor to light accumulation. Winds may be gusty at times in the afternoon. High near -6.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a 60% chance of flurries, minor accumulation. Increasing easterly or northerly winds, potentially gusty at times. Low near -18.
THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with a 30% chance of flurries in the morning. High near -7.
FRIDAY: Increasing cloud with a 60% chance of flurries or occasional snow in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds. High near -6. Snow overnight.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries and possible afternoon snow showers. High near -7.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence in the general pattern today through Friday, fair on a few details. The latest guidance is holding fairly steady with only a minor to light amount of precipitation in the area with today/tonight’s weak frontal passage although lower density snow could lead to greater than forecast accumulations. Variable accumulations will likely be seen throughout the East Kootenay and southern Rockies on Wednesday but with limited available moisture, even the heavier hit zones likely see less than 10mm melted water equivalent (again, some uncertainty on the potential for low density snow). Some uncertainty on the strength of the next push of modified Arctic air through the Elk Valley Wednesday night. The Fernie area should become positioned under a drier northerly flow between systems Thursday and Thursday night before the next, stronger Pacific system approaches from the west Friday & Friday night bringing snow (light to potentially moderate accumulation). Lingering moisture and instability in an unstable post-frontal airmass should result in a few flurries or convective snow showers, cool temperatures, and a few possible sunny breaks on Saturday. The longer range guidance favours cold & relatively dry conditions Sunday & potentially into the beginning of next week.