|Alpine Weather Report|
***Last forecast of the season***
ISSUED: Sunday April 14, 2019 10:45 MDT
SYNOPSIS: Expect mainly cloudy skies, occasional flurries or snow showers, and cool temperatures today and tonight as a broad upper trough remains in control over southern BC. Orographic uplift in the Fernie area should also help squeeze out some additional precipitation from the prevailing westerly flow over the next 24 hours. A slightly drier, milder, and more stable westerly flow Monday and Monday night brings a diminishing threat of more than the odd isolated flurry or snow shower. Temperatures trend cooler under partly clear skies Monday night.
FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1600m & 1800m this afternoon. At or near the surface tonight. Between 1600m and 1900m Monday afternoon. Surface Monday night.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Cloudy with possible sunny breaks and occasional flurries. Risk of snow showers, 2cm to 6cm. Gusty winds. High near 2.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow, 2cm to 6cm. Low near -4.
MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 30% chance of flurries, favouring the afternoon, a minor accumulation is possible. High near 3.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods. Risk of patchy fog by morning. Low near -5.
TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 30% chance of wet flurries or a minor rain shower in the afternoon. High near 4.
WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun & cloud. High near 7.
THURSDAY: A mix of sun and high cloud. High near 9.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence in the general pattern today through Monday night, becoming fair Tuesday onwards. There is still some uncertainty regarding the potential for more active convection over higher terrain of the East Kootenay and Southern Rockies this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating. Some guidance hints at a slight chance of an isolated mid to late afternoon thunderstorm with a local probability of less than 10% (unlikely but not impossible). Greater than forecast accumulation is possible this afternoon. Incoming bands of more organized moisture may favour the overnight period (tonight) for greater and more frequent flurries or snow. A drier westerly flow should bring sunnier skies and milder temperatures to the area on Tuesday, potentially followed by another weak wave of Pacific moisture Tuesday night (minor to light accumulation possible). A trend towards milder temperatures should be seen Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure building over the BC coast drifts inland. Confidence diminishes significantly Wednesday/Thursday as the guidance flip-flops on bands of warm-frontal moisture potentially becoming entrained in the upper flow mid-week.