|Alpine Weather Report|
ISSUED: Friday February 23, 2018 10:30 MST
SYNOPSIS: High pressure (surface based of modified Arctic origin) and its stagnant airmass will allow for local low cloud & fog patches this morning, sunny periods could develop before noon. Otherwise increasing/thickening cloud is expected this afternoon, a few flurries could develop late in the day and occasional light snow is likely tonight as a weakening disturbance pushes southeastward from the north-central coast. Variable cloud and limited flurries should linger Saturday morning. A brief gap between disturbances/a short wave ridge of high pressure could allow sunny periods to develop Saturday afternoon. Another Pacific system should push inland for increasing cloud Saturday evening and occasional snow later Saturday night and Sunday morning. The temperatures should gradually moderate.
FREEZING LEVEL: Surface.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Cloudy with fog patches and the possibility of a few snowflakes and sunny periods during the morning. Increasing cloud and wind during the afternoon, 60% chance of late day flurries. High near -9.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with occasional (generally light) low density snow. Accumulation from 3 to 8 cm. Windy at times, mainly during the evening. Low near -13.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with afternoon sunny periods. 60% chance of flurries, mainly during the early morning. High near -6.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods and a 40% chance of flurries during the evening. Occasional snow and increased wind overnight. Light accumulation possible. Low near -11.
SUNDAY: Periods of snow during the morning, easing to a 60% chance of flurries during the afternoon. Light accumulation. High near -4.
MONDAY: A mix of sun & cloud, slight chance of flurries. High near -2.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow, light accumulation possible. High near -2.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence today, fair tonight through Saturday, poor to fair beyond. The computer models are relatively consistent with the timing of the approaching disturbance but are now trending lighter with its moisture content. Even so with the current cold airmass a light accumulation of very low density snow is expected tonight. An upper trough could spiral patchy moisture northeastward from Washington for a few flurries Saturday morning. Airmass instability is still a risk for local flurries Saturday afternoon. There’s greater uncertainty of the timing and positioning of the Saturday night-Sunday system. For now its leading wave of moisture is favoured to produce occasional snow overnight Saturday and Sunday morning, the remainder of the system is now suggested to push further south. A few flurries or as suggested by some solutions locally heavier snow showers are possible Sunday afternoon. High pressure should dominate on Monday. Another relatively small wave of Pacific moisture could follow Tuesday.