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Alpine Weather Report

 

ISSUED:  Saturday April 15, 2017 10:30 MDT

Note: This is the final issue of this forecast for the season.

SYNOPSIS:  A minor return feed of moisture from an upper low pressure east of the Rockies in combination with an unstable airmass will result in cool, unsettled conditions today.  Clouds, a few flurries or brief snow showers, a few sunny breaks and gusty winds are all expected.  Variable cloud and scattered flurries should linger this evening.  A weak ridge of high pressure should build over southeastern BC for partial clearing later tonight and a mixture of sun & cloud on Sunday.  Increasing cloud is anticipated late Sunday night as high pressure shifts east of the Rockies and a weakening disturbance pushes northeastward from Oregon.

FREEZING LEVEL:  Rising to near 1700-1800 metres this afternoon.  Dropping to surface tonight.  Rising to between 1900 & 2200 metres Sunday afternoon.

 

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY:  Cloudy with a few flurries or snow showers, accumulation from a trace to 4 cm.  Gusty winds and a few sunny breaks during the afternoon.  High near 1.

TONIGHT:  Variable cloud with a 60% chance of flurries and gusty winds during the evening.    Cloudy with clear periods and fog patches overnight.  Low near -5.

SUNDAY:  A mix of sun & cloud, possible morning fog patches.  High near 6.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud, slight chance of flurries near morning.  Low near -1.

 

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a 60% chance of rain showers or possible wet flurries.  High near 5.    Occasional rain or wet snow Monday night.

TUESDAY & TUESDAY EVENING: Cloudy with occasional rain and, or wet snow.  High near 3.  Low near 0.

WEDNESDAY:  Cloudy with sunny periods.  High near 7.

 

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION:  Fair to good confidence through Sunday evening except fair confidence of the local amount of snow today, also fair confidence late Sunday night onward.   A small band of moisture will continue southeastward across the area for a few flurries this morning.  Airmass instability suggests highly variable conditions this afternoon and early-mid evening, isolated thunderstorms are a small risk again.  The computer models are relatively consistent and in good agreement for high pressure to dominate on Sunday.  The moisture content and the timing of the individual disturbances entrained in the southwesterly flow late Sunday night onward are questionable.  The initial band of moisture is now suggested to clip the southeast corner of BC for a chance of precipitation Monday afternoon and evening, previous guidance confined it south of the border, further changes are very possible.  More significant bands of Pacific moisture are likely later Monday night through Tuesday evening, the snow level will rise but determining how high is difficult.  High pressure could briefly dominate again Wednesday.

Ron Lakeman.  

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