|Alpine Weather Report|
***Last forecast of the season***
ISSUED: Sunday April 1, 2018 10:45 MDT
SYNOPSIS: Morning flurries intensify to periods of snow in the afternoon and evening as an upper low and associated bands of frontal moisture over-ride the remnants of a colder modified Arctic airmass in place at the surface. The potential for heavy snowfall rates peaks between roughly 5PM and 10PM tonight. Scattered convective flurries and snow showers should continue to roam the East Kootenay and southern Rockies overnight and early Monday as the low pressure centre tracks slowly east-southeastward over the area. Strong & gusty winds that may develop later today could linger into Monday morning. Winds and precipitation rates should ease by Monday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure approaches within a colder and drier northwesterly flow aloft.
FREEZING LEVEL: Surface.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Morning flurries becoming periods of snow in the afternoon, 5cm to 8cm. Winds increase out of the N or NE, potentially gusty at times. High near -4.
TONIGHT: Periods of snow, potentially heavy at times before midnight. Accumulation from 10cm to 18cm. Moderate to strong NE or N winds. Low near -12.
MONDAY: Cloudy with flurries or occasional snow in the morning (up to 5cm), becoming a 60% chance of flurries in the afternoon (up to 3cm). Moderate to strong winds in the morning, generally easing through the day. High near -5.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a 70% chance of flurries, minor accumulation. Low near -10.
TUESDAY: A mix of sun & cloud with a 30% chance of a flurry. High near 0.
WEDNESDAY: A few possible sunny breaks in the morning. Increasing cloud with a 60% chance of flurries in the afternoon. High near 1.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries or snow, light accumulation. High near 0.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence in the general pattern today through Tuesday, becoming fair Wednesday onwards. The back edge of the bands of moisture producing snow in/around Fernie this morning is currently passing over the West Kootenay - a temporary lull in snowfall rates will likely be seen mid-late afternoon today before heavier snow redevelops towards the end of the day or early this evening. Relatively strong surface convergence combined with the interaction of Pacific moisture over-riding the weakening modified Arctic airmass may lead to heavier than forecast snowfall accumulations at Fernie or nearby areas by Monday morning. A flat upper ridge is still expected to pass over the area on Tuesday for drier and more stable conditions. By Wednesday or Thursday, the Pacific storm track could become directed at or just south of the Fernie area as the first of a set of two to four relatively strong frontal systems brings thickening cloud, snow, and increasing ridgetop winds. Higher than forecast temperatures and freezing levels are possible Wednesday onwards as the sustained W or WSW flow keeps colder air east of the Rockies.