ISSUED: Monday December 2, 2024 10:45 MST

SYNOPSIS: An upper ridge of high pressure will gradually build eastward across southern BC for dry, uneventful conditions during the next few days. Fairly sunny/clear skies should prevail above the valley elevation today and into tonight.  A stagnating low level airmass increases the chance of low cloud and fog patches above the valley later tonight and Tuesday morning.  Sunny periods could redevelop Tuesday afternoon. Trapped low level moisture favours low cloud and fog patches again Tuesday night.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising slightly above surface this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.  A deep temperature inversion is developing, a slightly above freezing layer could develop above 2000 metres.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Sunny with a few bands of cloud or cloudy periods.  High near 0.

TONIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods during the evening, greater cloud cover and fog patches overnight.  Low near -5.

TUESDAY: Variable low cloud and fog patches during the morning, otherwise cloudy with sunny periods. Possibly windy at times. High near -1.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with fog patches and clear periods.  Low near -5.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with fog patches and possible afternoon sunny periods. High near 0.  Low near -4.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with fog patches and possible sunny breaks.  Possibly windy at times.  High near -1.  60% chance of flurries Thursday night.  Low near -4.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with possible morning fog patches.  Occasional snow during the afternoon and Friday night, light accumulation possible.  Windy at times.  High -1 or -2.  Low near -2.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair good confidence of the general pattern through Wednesday.  Fair Wednesday night onward and also fair confidence of the local sky condition and the temperatures tonight onward.  The low cloud which developed last night appears to be confined below 1300 metres this morning and should dissipate this afternoon.  A series of very weak upper disturbances should drift over the area of high pressure and southeastward along or just east of the Rockies for cloudy periods or variable cloud at times overnight through Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  This patchy system related (mid-upper level) cloud could limit the local development of low cloud and fog at times.  The deep temperature inversion and questionable cloud cover makes for some uncertainty of the local temperature during the next few days. The computer models are increasingly variable with the timing and moisture content of the developing southwesterly flow Thursday and Friday.  More changes are likely however the current trend is for a weakening disturbance Thursday evening and then progressively more substantial Pacific systems Friday afternoon-evening and then late Friday night and Saturday.

Ron Lakeman.