|Mountain Weather Report|
ISSUED: Sunday April 3, 2022 10:45 MDT Note: This is the final scheduled forecast of the season.
SYNOPSIS: A strengthening southwesterly flow aloft in advance of a large Pacific frontal system will provide increasing/variable cloud this morning and then increasing wind and a 60% chance of flurries this afternoon and evening. Periods of snow, a few snow showers and moderate to strong winds are expected as the frontal system tracks eastward across southern BC late overnight and Monday. An upper trough following the cold front should maintain a few snow showers and gusty winds Monday evening and then produce scattered flurries later Monday night.
FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1600 & 1800 metres today, possibly trending lower late in the day. Dropping to between 1000 & 1300 metres tonight. Rising slightly on Monday.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):
TODAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks. 60% chance of mid-late afternoon flurries, minor accumulation possible. Increasing wind by afternoon. High 1 or 2.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. 60% chance of evening flurries. Snow developing late overnight. Possible accumulation from 2 to 5 cm. Windy, strong at times. Low near -1.
MONDAY: Periods of snow and afternoon snow showers, possibly heavy at times. Snow level rising to near 1300 metres. Moderate accumulation, possible 10 to 15 cm. Windy, strong at times. High 0 or 1.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with gusty winds, a few snow showers and flurries during the evening. Cloudy with clear breaks and a 40% chance of flurries overnight. Light accumulation, possible 2 to 5 cm. Low near -4.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a 60% chance of flurries, minor to low end light accumulation possible. Windy at times. High 1 or 2. Low near -7.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. High near 5. Low near -4.
THURSDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. High near 9. Low near -1.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence of the synoptic pattern, still fair confidence of the local details. The initial feed of moisture is suggested to largely dissipate before it reaches the Rockies this afternoon and evening, regardless the local upslope conditions and a slightly unstable airmass favour a few local flurries. The most recent computer models have advanced the arrival of the frontal system slightly, now suggesting steady snow could develop between 3 & 5 AM Monday. The computer models are also trending a bit lighter with the local amount of snow Monday and Monday evening. The wildcard here is the intensity and coverage of convective snow showers which develop during the afternoon and early evening, locally heavy cells are possible and isolated thunderstorms are also a risk. An unstable northwesterly flow suggests relatively cool and unsettled conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure should rebuild over southern BC Wednesday and Thursday.