ISSUED: Friday March 28, 2025 11:00 MDT

SYNOPSIS: A series of disturbances spiraling northeastward from an upper low pressure centred off the coast of Washington will provide periods of snow, a few flurries and likely a few snow showers at times today and tonight.  The remnants of the upper low pressure shifting eastward across Washington-Montana in combination with a cooler airmass attempting to push just west of Alberta should result in variable cloud cover and a few flurries at times Saturday and Saturday evening.  High pressure could allow for partial clearing later Saturday night. A tightening pressure gradient suggests a moderate wind at times.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1600 & 1800 metres this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.  Dropping to or near surface tonight. 

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Periods of snow and afternoon snow showers. Accumulation from 10 to 15 cm.  Windy at times. High 0 or 1.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries and evening snow showers.  Accumulation from 4 to 8 cm.  Windy at times. Low -2 or -3.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries and a few sunny breaks.  Minor to low end light accumulation, possible 1 to 4 cm.  Windy at times. High near 1.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variable cloud and a 70% chance of flurries during the evening, minor to low end light accumulation possible. Cloudy with clear periods overnight. Possibly windy at times. Low -4 or -5.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY: A mix of sun & cloud, possible early morning fog patches.  Slight chance of late afternoon and early evening flurries.  High near 3.  Increasing cloud Sunday night. Low near -3.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. 40% chance of flurries by late morning, 70% chance of flurries or occasional snow during the afternoon and evening, light accumulation.  Possibly windy at times. High near 1.  Low -2 or -3.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 60% chance of flurries.  High near 1.  70% chance of flurries or occasional Tuesday night, minor to light accumulation possible. Low -2 or -3.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence except poor to fair confidence of the local amount of snow today and tonight. The main band of precipitation skirted just south of Fernie last night.  There’s much uncertainty of the local amount of snow with todays surge of Pacific moisture, airmass instability could generate highly variable snow showers during the afternoon and early evening. The snow level should be variable but remain below 1600 metres.  Airmass instability and a surface based easterly/upslope flow across the Rockies should produce a few flurries Saturday afternoon and evening, the main band of light snow could be confined just east of Fernie.  High pressure should briefly dominate Sunday and Sunday evening.  A moist southwesterly flow should redevelop Sunday night. The computer models are variable but generally trending toward a greater chance of at least a few flurries with an embedded disturbance Monday afternoon and evening.  A broad upper trough could linger for unsettled conditions Tuesday.

Ron Lakeman.