ISSUED: Monday March 31, 2025 11:00 MDT   Note: This is the final weather forecast for the season.

SYNOPSIS: Bands of moisture spiraling north-northeastward from a large upper low pressure approaching the coast of Washington-Oregon will provide occasional light snow or a few flurries today.  The upper low pressure and its unstable airmass will continue eastward just south of the International Border for mainly cloudy skies to variable cloud cover, a few flurries and possible snow showers at times tonight and Tuesday.  A weak upper disturbance should drift southeastward from central BC-Alberta for similar conditions Tuesday night.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1600 & 1800 metres this afternoon. A freezing layer should redevelop at surface tonight.  Fluctuating between 1200 & 1600 metres Tuesday.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with occasional light snow and then a few flurries. Snow level rising to near 1400-1500 metres, accumulation from a trace to 4 cm.  Gusty afternoon winds. High 1 or 2.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries and possible snow showers. Possible accumulation of 2 to 5 cm.  Gusty evening winds.  Low near -3.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries and a few sunny breaks.  Possible snow showers, gusty winds and the small risk of a thunderstorm during the afternoon. Minor-light accumulation, possible 2 to 5 cm. High near 1

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a 70% chance of flurries.  Possible snow showers, gusty winds and the small risk of a thunderstorm during the early evening.  Minor to low end light accumulation possible.  Low near -4.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks and a few afternoon and evening flurries & snow showers.  Light accumulation. Windy at times. High near 0.  Low -5 or -6.

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries and afternoon & evening snow showers.  Light accumulation. Windy at times.   High near -2.   Clearing late Thursday night.  Low -8 or -9.

FRIDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. High near 3.  Low near -5.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence. The computer models are trending much lighter with the moisture content of the current small disturbance and also much lighter with the local amount of snow this morning. The flurries could ease off this afternoon. The computer models are still variable with the exact positioning of the upper low and how far north its scattered flurries or snow showers will spread tonight.  The most recent solutions confine the more significant snow showers (greater rate of fall versus flurries) just south of Fernie tonight and early Tuesday, this could change. A westerly and then northwesterly flow should develop aloft Tuesday-Wednesday and persist through Friday. The moisture content and timing of a series of weak embedded disturbances are questionable.  Airmass instability suggests the majority of the flurries and snow showers should occur during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Thursday. A cooler airmass should seep just west of Alberta Wednesday night and Thursday.  An upper ridge of high pressure should begin to build from the coast late Thursday night and Friday.  It could dominate next weekend.

Ron Lakeman.