ISSUED: Sunday February 1, 2025 11:00 MST

SYNOPSIS: Fernie should reside between fronts for partly cloudy skies or variable cloud and fog patches this morning.  Increasing cloud is expected this afternoon and occasional precipitation (dropping snow level) should follow late today and more so this evening as a frontal system (cold front) and upper trough push eastward across southern BC.  Limited or partial clearing is possible overnight and early Monday. Another relatively minor Pacific system should push inland for increasing or thickening cloud Monday afternoon and a 70% chance of precipitation (rising snow level) late Monday or more likely Monday evening.

FREEZING LEVEL: Between 1800 & 2000 metres this morning, dropping to between 1500 & 1700 metres late this afternoon.  A freezing or near freezing layer should develop at surface tonight. Rising to between 1600 & 1800 metres Monday afternoon.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and fog patches during the morning, increasing cloud during the afternoon. 60% chance of rain/wet snow late in the day, snow level 1800-1600 metres.  Gusty afternoon winds.  High near 3, trending cooler late in the day.

TONIGHT:  Occasional snow or a few snow showers (dropping snow level) and gusty winds during the evening. Accumulation from 3 to 6 cm.  Diminishing chance of flurries, possible clear breaks and possible fog patches overnight. Low near -1.

MONDAY: Possible morning fog patches and sunny breaks, otherwise cloudy.  60% chance of flurries/light rain late in the day.  Snow level 1500-1700 metres.  High 1 or 2.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few flurries/light rain during the evening. Snow level 1500-1700 metres, minor to low end light accumulation possible. Possible clear breaks and fog patches overnight.  Low near 0.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY: Cloudy with fog patches and possible sunny breaks.  High 2 or 3.  Low near 0.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with fog patches, possible sunny periods.  High near 3.  Low near 0.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with fog patches, possible sunny periods.  High 3 or 4.  Low 0 or -1.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence.  The most recent computer models suggest precipitation will develop after 5 PM today, the current radar imagery suggests it could develop slightly earlier.  There’s also still some uncertainty of the snow level, especially during the onset of the precipitation. The snow level will drop as the cold front passes during the early evening and airmass instability could generate variable snow showers in its wake this evening.  The computer models are increasingly variable with the moisture content of the following (late Monday-Monday evening) system, the snow level is questionable and could trend higher.  A strong upper ridge of high pressure should dominate Tuesday through at least Thursday.  A deep temperature inversion and stagnating low level airmass favour extensive low cloud and fog patches at times.

Ron Lakeman.