Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather Report
ISSUED: Sunday February 22, 2025 10:00 MST SYNOPSIS: A frontal system will push northeastward from the coast of Washington-Oregon for variable cloud, increasing wind and a slight chance of late day flurries today, and then periods of snow tonight and Monday morning. An upper trough should follow for a few flurries and snow showers (fluctuating snow level) and significant wind at times Monday afternoon and evening. The temperature will trend milder. FREEZING LEVEL: Rising slightly above surface this afternoon. At or near surface tonight. Fluctuating between 1100 & 1500 metres Monday. FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres): TODAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks. 40% chance of late day flurries. Increasing wind during the afternoon. High -3 or -4. TONIGHT: Cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow during the evening, heavier snow overnight. Accumulation from 8 to 15 cm. Windy at times. Low near -4, trending milder overnight. MONDAY: Occasional snow during the morning, a few flurries and snow showers during the afternoon. Light to moderate accumulation, possible 8 to 15 cm. Windy, strong afternoon gusts possible. High 0 or -1. MONDAY NIGHT: A few flurries or snow showers and gusty winds during the evening, diminishing chance of flurries and possible clear breaks overnight. Light accumulation. Low -6 or -7. OUTLOOK: TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks or sunny periods. Possibly windy at times. High near -1. 60% chance of snow (light accumulation possible) Tuesday night. Low -4 or -5. WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 60% chance of afternoon and evening flurries. Minor to low end light accumulation possible. Increasing wind during the afternoon. High -1 or -2. Low -3 or -4. THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 40% chance of afternoon flurries. Windy. High -1 or -2. 60% chance of flurries Thursday night. Low near -6. CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence today. Fair confidence tonight through Monday night. Poor to fair confidence Tuesday onward. There’s some uncertainty of how quickly the temperature will rise with the mild southwesterly flow this afternoon-tonight and then how high the snow level will rise Monday. All of the guidance is in agreement for periods of snow tonight (more so during the late evening and overnight) and some computer models are trending slightly greater with the local amount of snow overnight and early Monday. The heavier snow associated with the upper trough could be confined just south of Fernie Monday afternoon-evening however airmass instability could still generate variable/locally heavy snow showers (dropping snow level) during the afternoon and early evening. The computer models are trending the following wave of Pacific moisture just south of the International Border Tuesday however some solutions suggest it’ll drift far enough north for occasional snow Tuesday night. An unstable northwesterly flow is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Ron Lakeman.

Mountain Weather Report

ISSUED: Sunday February 22, 2025 10:00 MST

SYNOPSIS: A frontal system will push northeastward from the coast of Washington-Oregon for variable cloud, increasing wind and a slight chance of late day flurries today, and then periods of snow tonight and Monday morning. An upper trough should follow for a few flurries and snow showers (fluctuating snow level) and significant wind at times Monday afternoon and evening. The temperature will trend milder.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising slightly above surface this afternoon. At or near surface tonight. Fluctuating between 1100 & 1500 metres Monday.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks. 40% chance of late day flurries. Increasing wind during the afternoon. High -3 or -4.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow during the evening, heavier snow overnight. Accumulation from 8 to 15 cm. Windy at times. Low near -4, trending milder overnight.

MONDAY: Occasional snow during the morning, a few flurries and snow showers during the afternoon. Light to moderate accumulation, possible 8 to 15 cm. Windy, strong afternoon gusts possible. High 0 or -1.

MONDAY NIGHT: A few flurries or snow showers and gusty winds during the evening, diminishing chance of flurries and possible clear breaks overnight. Light accumulation. Low -6 or -7.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks or sunny periods. Possibly windy at times. High near -1. 60% chance of snow (light accumulation possible) Tuesday night. Low -4 or -5.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 60% chance of afternoon and evening flurries. Minor to low end light accumulation possible. Increasing wind during the afternoon. High -1 or -2. Low -3 or -4.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 40% chance of afternoon flurries. Windy. High -1 or -2. 60% chance of flurries Thursday night. Low near -6.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence today. Fair confidence tonight through Monday night. Poor to fair confidence Tuesday onward. There’s some uncertainty of how quickly the temperature will rise with the mild southwesterly flow this afternoon-tonight and then how high the snow level will rise Monday. All of the guidance is in agreement for periods of snow tonight (more so during the late evening and overnight) and some computer models are trending slightly greater with the local amount of snow overnight and early Monday. The heavier snow associated with the upper trough could be confined just south of Fernie Monday afternoon-evening however airmass instability could still generate variable/locally heavy snow showers (dropping snow level) during the afternoon and early evening. The computer models are trending the following wave of Pacific moisture just south of the International Border Tuesday however some solutions suggest it’ll drift far enough north for occasional snow Tuesday night. An unstable northwesterly flow is expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Ron Lakeman.