ISSUED: Monday March 24, 2025 11:00 MDT

SYNOPSIS: An elongated Pacific frontal system and its mild southwesterly feed of moisture should provide mainly cloudy skies and a 50-80% chance of rain/wet snow at times today, tonight and Tuesday.  The main bands of precipitation are expected this morning and more so late tonight through Tuesday morning or early afternoon. An upper ridge of high pressure building from the south should allow for partial clearing Tuesday night. The temperature will trend milder.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 2000 & 2200 metres this afternoon and slightly higher Tuesday afternoon. A near freezing layer could develop at surface overnight.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Mainly cloudy.  Occasional (generally light) rain/snow during the morning, 60% chance of afternoon showers. Snow level 1800-1900 metres.  Windy at times.  High near 5.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a 50% chance of light rain/wet flurries, 70% chance of precipitation developing near morning. Snow level 1900-1600 m, minor accumulation possible. Windy at times. Low 0 or 1.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with morning fog patches. Occasional rain (possible wet snow initially) during the morning and early afternoon, 60% chance of showers during the mid & late afternoon.  Snow level rising to near 2000 metres.  Windy at times.  High near 6.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods and fog patches.  Low 0 or 1.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun & cloud, slight chance of late afternoon rain showers. Increasing wind during the afternoon and evening.  High 9 or 10.   60% chance of rain showers and a risk of thundershowers Wednesday evening.  40% chance of flurries overnight. Low 0 or 1.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks and a 70% chance of showers or wet snow showers.  Minor to light accumulation of snow possible.  Risk of a thundershower.  Gusty winds.  High 4 or 5.  70% chance of showers and snow showers Thursday night, light accumulation of snow possible. Low near -1.

FRIDAY and FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries or snow showers. Light accumulation possible.  Gusty winds. High near 2.  Low near -2.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence. The computer models are still variable with the moisture content of the current system and the resulting coverage of precipitation.  Some solutions suggest a greater than currently predicted amount of precipitation today and then downplay the chance of precipitation Tuesday.  There’s also still some uncertainty of the snow level during the next few days however any snow below 1700 metres today through Tuesday evening would be minimal. High pressure should dominate during the majority of Wednesday.  A moist southwesterly flow increases the chance of showers & thundershowers Wednesday evening.  A large upper low pressure gradually pushing toward the coast of Washinton-Oregon should maintain a moist and unstable southwesterly flow Thursday and Friday.  The timing and moisture content of a series of embedded disturbances are questionable. The snow level will trend lower and airmass instability is also favourable for snow at times late Wednesday night or Thursday onward.

Ron Lakeman.