ISSUED: Sunday December 22, 2024 10:45 MST

SYNOPSIS: Limited flurries should linger through mid morning as an upper trough exits east of the Rockies. Some clearing is expected in its wake during the late morning and the majority of this afternoon. A weakening disturbance will push northeastward from the coast of Washington for increasing cloud during the late afternoon or early evening and a 70% chance of light snow later tonight. A few flurries could persist Monday morning-early afternoon.  High pressure should briefly dominate for sunny periods Monday afternoon and dry, partly cloudy to mainly cloudy conditions Monday night.  Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue.

FREEZING LEVEL:  Rising to between 1500 & 1700 metres this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. At or near surface tonight.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY:  Mainly cloudy with fog patches and a 60% chance of flurries during the early-mid morning. Cloudy with sunny breaks or sunny periods during the late morning and afternoon. High 0 or 1.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. 70% chance of flurries or occasional snow, mainly after midnight. Accumulation from a trace to 4 cm.  Possibly windy at times. Low near -2.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 70% chance of flurries during the morning and early afternoon. Minor to low end light accumulation. Possible morning fog patches and mid-late afternoon sunny periods. High 1 or 2

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods and fog patches.  Low -4 or -5.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY: Possible morning sunny breaks and fog patches, otherwise cloudy.  Flurries or occasional snow developing during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Light accumulation. Windy at times.  High near 0.  Low -3 or -4.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks or sunny periods and morning fog patches.  Increasing wind late in the day.  High -1 or -2.  60% chance of flurries Wednesday night.  Low -3 or -4.

BOXING DAY: Cloudy with occasional snow or a few flurries. Light accumulation possible. Possibly windy at times. High near -1. A few flurries Thursday evening. Low -3 or -4.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Much the same as the past couple of days, fair to good confidence of the general pattern and still fair confidence of some local details. A near endless series of disturbances entrained in a southwesterly flow will maintain unseasonably mild temperatures and a fluctuating snow level during the next several days. The computer models struggle with the exact timing, positioning and moisture content of each individual disturbance.  The snow level is also questionable however it should remain below 1300-1400 metres. The latest trend increases the chance of at least a few local flurries tonight and Monday morning.  Some guidance also now suggests airmass instability could result in brief snow showers Monday morning or early afternoon, a slightly greater than currently predicted amount snow is possible.  The passage of the Tuesday afternoon-evening system appears relatively quick, its heavier snow could be confined just west and south of Fernie.  The computer models are increasingly variable with the moisture content of the system currently timed for late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Ron Lakeman.