ISSUED: Friday February 21, 2025 10:45 MST

SYNOPSIS: A relatively moist westerly flow aloft will provide mainly cloudy skies and a 60% chance of flurries during the majority of today.  A series of disturbances entrained in a developing southwesterly flow increase the chance of light snow late today and should result in increased wind and occasional snow or a few flurries at times tonight and Saturday. Much heavier precipitation (rising snow level) is expected with a large frontal system tracking inland from the south coast Saturday night.  The temperature will continue to trend milder.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1300 & 1500 metres this afternoon and slightly higher Saturday.  Near surface tonight.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with a 60% chance flurries, a few flurries or occasional snow developing by late afternoon.  Minor accumulation possible.  Possibly windy at times during the afternoon.  High near -1.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a few flurries and then occasional snow. Accumulation 5 to 10 cm. Windy at times.  Low -1 or -2.

SATURDAY: Occasional snow or a few flurries, mainly during the morning and early afternoon. Otherwise cloudy. Light accumulation, possible 2 to 5 cm.  Increasing wind.  High 1 or 2.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow/rain, heavy at times.  Heavy accumulation possible, mainly above 1600-1800 metres.  Windy.  Low 0 or 1, possibly trending milder overnight.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY and SUNDAY NIGHT: Periods of rain/snow, heavy at times. Heavy accumulation possible, mainly above 1600-1800 metres. Windy at times.  High 2 or 3. Low near 1.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 60% chance of wet flurries or light rain during the morning. Cloudy with sunny breaks or sunny periods during the afternoon.  High near 3.  Periods of snow/possible rain Monday night, moderate accumulation possible.  Low near 0.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries or occasional wet snow/rain. Light accumulation possible.  High 2 or 3.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence of the synoptic pattern.  Poor to fair confidence of the local details, more so Saturday onward.  The computer models are still rather variable with the moisture content of the airmass and chance of flurries today.  Steadier snow associated with the initial more organized system could develop during the mid or late afternoon, some guidance suggests a greater rate of fall after 8 PM.  A brief lull between systems is possible Saturday afternoon.  All of the guidance is still in agreement for two large Pacific frontal systems and heavy precipitation (50-80 mm) Saturday night through Sunday night.  The snow level is highly questionable, some guidance suggests it could rise to near 2000 metres at times.  A third substantial wave of Pacific moisture is now expected Monday night.  The snow level is once again highly uncertain, some guidance suggests it could be lower.  A moist westerly flow should prevail Tuesday.

Ron Lakeman.