ISSUED: Saturday December 6, 2025 11:30 MST

SYNOPSIS: A moist westerly flow aloft will provide mainly cloudy skies and scattered flurries early today.  Occasional snow is expected this afternoon and evening as a relatively small upper trough pushes eastward across the southern interior of BC.  Variable cloud and isolated flurries should linger in its wake later tonight and early Sunday.  Another upper trough should push inland from the south coast for occasional snow Sunday afternoon and evening.  A tightening pressure gradient should result in moderate wind at times, possibly strong Sunday night.  The temperature should gradually trend milder.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising to between 1100 & 1300 metres this afternoon and to between 1300 & 1600 metres Sunday afternoon.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Mainly cloudy.  60% chance of flurries during the morning, occasional snow during the afternoon. Accumulation from 2 to 5 cm. Windy at times.  High near -1.

TONIGHT: Occasional snow during the evening.  Mainly cloudy with fog patches and a 40% chance of flurries overnight.  Accumulation from 3 to 6 cm. Windy at times. Low -2 or -3.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with fog patches and a 40% chance of flurries during the morning.  Occasional snow during the afternoon, mainly mid and late afternoon. Light accumulation, possible 1 to 4 cm.  Increasing wind. High near 0.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Occasional snow during the evening.  Mainly cloudy with fog patches and a 60% chance of flurries overnight. Light accumulation, possible 2 to 5 cm.  Windy, possibly strong at times.  Low near 0, possibly trending slightly milder overnight.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY and MONDAY NIGHT: Snow/rain developing during the morning, heavy at times during the late afternoon and evening, easing off late overnight.  Snow level 1500-1800 metres, moderate to heavy accumulation possible. Windy, possibly strong at times.  High 0 or 1.  Low -1 or -2.

TUESDAY and TUESDAY NIGHT: Possible morning fog patches and sunny breaks, otherwise cloudy. Slight chance of flurries during the morning and again late in the day. Periods of snow Tuesday night, light to moderate accumulation possible. Windy, possibly strong at times. High near 0. Low near -3.

WEDNESDAY: Snow during the morning, cloudy with a few flurries during the afternoon. Light accumulation. Windy at times. High near -1. Low near -8.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good confidence of the synoptic pattern. Poor to fair confidence of many local details.  All of the guidance is in agreement for a significant storm cycle during the next few days however the timing and moisture content of each Pacific system and the snow level are all questionable.  Some changes are likely.  The next two systems appear relatively small but airmass instability is a risk to generate local snow showers for greater than currently predicted amounts of snow late today-this evening and again Sunday evening.  All of the guidance still favours the Monday afternoon-Monday night system for heavy precipitation, accurately predicting exactly how heavy and how high the snow level will rise is very difficult.  Some solutions suggest 40 mm. There’s increased uncertainty of the local temperature Monday night onward. The Tuesday night-Wednesday system could also produce heavy precipitation.

Ron Lakeman.