Mountain Weather Report | |
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ISSUED: Monday March 18, 2024 11:00 MDT SYNOPSIS: An upper ridge of high pressure will maintain mainly sunny/clear and unseasonably warm conditions as it holds over southern BC today and begins to flatten southward on Tuesday. Moisture associated with the leading edge of a modified Arctic airmass pushing southward across Alberta could result in cloudy periods Tuesday afternoon. This disturbance should also tighten the pressure gradient for increased wind late Tuesday or Tuesday night and provide a 50% chance of flurries Tuesday night. A cooling trend will begin Tuesday night, winter will return. FREEZING LEVEL: Slightly above 3000 metres today. Between 2600 & 2900 metres on Tuesday. A freezing or near freezing layer should redevelop at surface tonight. FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres): TODAY: Sunny. High temperature near 14. TONIGHT: Mainly clear, patchy fog possibly developing overnight. Low near 1. TUESDAY: Patchy fog possible during the early morning. Otherwise sunny with afternoon cloudy periods. Increasing wind possible during the afternoon. High 10 or 11. TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud during the evening, 50% chance of flurries overnight. Windy at times. Low -1 or -2. OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 60% chance of flurries, minor accumulation possible. Windy at times. High 1 or 2. A few flurries or occasional snow developing late Wednesday night, light accaumultion possible. Low -5 or -6. THURSDAY: Periods of snow and possible snow showers. Moderate to heavy accumulation possible. Windy at times. High near -3. A few flurries and windy Thursday night. Low near -7. FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, minor to light accaumultion possible. Possibly windy at times. High near -3. CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Generally good confidence through Tuesday morning, fair Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Still poor to fair confidence Wednesday onward. A stagnating airmass is still a risk for local fog patches late tonight and early Tuesday morning. The main initial band of snow should be largely confined east of the Continental Divide Tuesday night however the guidance is trending a bit further west toward Fernie with limited flurries, possibly developing before midnight. Most of this mornings guidance also confines the greater chance of snow just east and north of Fernie during the majority of Wednesday and Wednesday evening. A broad upper trough and a possible feed of patchy moisture from a system centred off the coast increases the chance of accumulating snow late Wednesday night and Thursday. Airmass instability also increases the chance of heavier snow showers Thursday. The computer models are still highly variable with the exact positioning of the colder airmass late Tuesday onward. It could remain just east of Fernie or as suggested by some solutions it could seep into the Elk Valley Wednesday, retreat slightly east Wednesday night and then push west over Fernie again Thursday and Thursday night. An upper trough and a patchy southwesterly feed of moisture should persist Friday.
Ron Lakeman. | |