ISSUED: Thursday January 16, 2025 10:45 MST

SYNOPSIS: A large upper trough and associated cold front will track southeastward across the area for significant wind at times today and a 70% chance of flurries during the afternoon and early evening. A dryer northwesterly flow in its wake should allow for partial clearing later this evening.  A weak upper trough clipping southeastward along the Rockies in combination with a developing surface based easterly/upslope flow across the Rockies suggests variable cloud cover and a 30-50% chance of flurries overnight and Friday.  The leading edge of a modified Arctic airmass should begin to gradually push west of Alberta for increased wind, light snow and a much colder trending temperature Friday night.

FREEZING LEVEL: Rising slightly above surface this morning.  Surface tonight and Friday. A deep temperature inversion should persist this morning and dissipate this afternoon.

FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST (1615 metres):

TODAY: Mainly cloudy.  A few flurries developing near or shortly before noon, accumulation from a trace to 3 cm.  Windy, likely strong at times.  High -1 or -2, tending slightly cooler during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a 70% chance of flurries during the early evening.  Cloudy with clear periods late evening and overnight.  50% chance of flurries again near morning. Minor accumulation possible. Wind diminishing late evening and overnight. Low near -9.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a few sunny breaks. 30-50% chance of flurries, the greater chance during the early morning.  Possibly windy at times, more so at the upper elevations.  High near -5.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow, minor to low end light accumulation possible.  Increased wind overnight.  Low near -15.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY: 40% chance of early morning flurries.  Otherwise sunny with cloudy periods.  Possibly windy at times and a high wind chill.  High temperature near -13.  Low near -20.

SUNDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Possibly windy at times and a high wind chill. High temperature near -14 or -15.  Low near -25.

MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. High near -17. Low near -22.

CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence.  The approaching cold front is expected to largely dissipate before it reaches the Rockies this afternoon however a tightening pressure gradient in its advance and its passage both favour a strong wind at times today.  The main chance of flurries should be confined just east of Fernie late tonight and Friday.  The computer models continue to trend slightly slower with the arrival of the modified Arctic airmass which makes for some uncertainty or the local amount of snow, the local wind and the local temperature Friday night.  A gradual westward seepage of the colder airmass is now suggested for Saturday and Saturday night.  A stronger, secondary push of Arctic air is possible Sunday and Sunday night.

Ron Lakeman.